Solomons elections 2010 – Party of Five

Update (25/07/10): I now have a complete list of parties contesting the 2010 election here.

One certainty of the pre-election period in Solomons is that old parties will dust off their slogans and new parties will mushroom. By my count, five new parties have already been established this year, at a rate of almost one per week!

• The Ownership, Unity and Responsibility (OUR) party, co-founded by former Prime Minister Manasseh Sogavare and 7-8 other MPs from the Grand Coalition for Change Government (GCCG). This is at least the third party founded by Mr Sogavare following the People’s Progressive Party (established prior to the 2001 election) and the Social Credit (SoCred) Party (established prior to the 2006 election).

• The Autonomous Solomon Islanders Party (ASIP),  co-founded by former politicians Jackson Sunaone (member for West Makira, 2000-01, elected at a by election held following the death of Solomon Mamaloni) and Denis Lulei (member for West Isabel, 1980-89 and for Maringe-Kokota, 1993-97). An earlier report in the Solomon Star (9/12/09) states that the ASIP executive also includes former member for Gao-Bugotu (2001-06) and minister in the Kemakeza government, Basil Manelegua.

• The Peace, Oneness and Prosperity party, founded by Delmah Nori (who unsuccessfully contested Central Honiara in the 2006 election, coming 5th out of 13 candidates)

• The Solomon Islands United Nationalist Party (SUN) party, founded by colourful character and former secretary of Manasseh Sogavare’s SoCred party, Sri Ramon Quitales
• The People’s Power Action Party, founded by Robert Wales Feratelia. Mr Feratelia was previously Honiara Lord Mayor and president of the SI Planned Parenthood Association. He unsuccessfully contested East Honiara in the 2006 election, coming 11th out of 18 candidates, and was the subject of charges (later dropped) relating to the April riots in 2006. He has denied any involvement in the burning and looting of Chinatown.

This is a pretty impressive number considering that there are already seven parties nominally represented in Parliament, according to the Solomons Parliament web site).

To give some perspective, in a 2006 article, Sam Alasia reported that there were 16 parties contesting the 2006 elections, which was itself a big increase from the 10 and 9 in the previous two elections (Alasia 2006, “Rainbows across the mountains: the first post-RAMSI general election, p.122). For what it’s worth, I only counted 13 parties during the 2006 elections but I’ll readily defer to Sam on this one.

And while we’re keeping track, the seven parties listed on the Parliament web site are:

• People’s Alliance Party (PAP, est. 1979)
  (prominent members: Allan Kemakeza, Fred Fono)
• Association of Independent Members (AIM, est. c.2001)
  (prominent members: Snyder Rini, Tommy Chan)
• Social Credit (SoCred) Party (est. 2006)
  (prominent members: Manasseh Sogavare)
• Liberal Party (est. 1988)
  (prominent members: late Bart Ulufa’alu, Japhet Waipora, Milner Tozaka)
• Democratic Party (est. 2006)
  (prominent members: Matthew Wale, Steve Abana)
• Nasnol Pati (est. c.1997)
  (prominent members: Francis Billy Hilly)
• Party for Rural Advancement (est. 2006)
  (prominent members: Job Dudley Tausinga, Gordon Darcy Lilo)

Solomons elections 2010 – a tasty date?

Solomon Islands last held general elections almost four years ago, on the 5th of April 2006. Another election is due soon – to be more precise, it is due before 24 August 2010. This date can be deduced from sections 73 and 74 of the Constitution, which state:

Prorogation and dissolution

73.(3) Parliament, unless sooner dissolved …, shall continue for four years from the date of the first sitting of Parliament after any general election and shall then stand dissolved.

General elections

74. There shall be a general election at such time within four months of every dissolution of Parliament as the Governor-General shall appoint by proclamation published in the Gazette.

The first sitting of the 8th Parliament of Solomon Islands was held on 24 April 2006 (the earlier election of Snyder Rini the Prime Minister on 18 April, which precipitated the “April Riots”, does not constitute a sitting of Parliament). Therefore, Parliament will stand dissolved on 24 April 2010 and the general election shall be held within four months of that date.

I assume that the protocol is that the Governor-General chooses a date based on advice from the Prime Minister, Derek Sikua. If this is correct, it seems likely that the Prime Minister will wait for as long as possible, to maximise the chances that Parliament can reconsider, enact and then implement the Constitution (Political Parties Amendment) Bill 2009 and related legislation.

The Government decided to defer consideration of the Bill after it became clear that it would not achieve the necessary votes of not less than two-thirds of all the members of Parliament on two separate readings in Parliament, as required under Section 61(3) of the Constitution. The Constitutional Review Committee only handed down its report on the Bill on 23 November and as a result, some MPs argued that they would vote against because “most parliamentarians were given very little time to study the contents and intentions of the proposed integrity bill” (Solomon Times, 25/11/09). It remains to be seen whether enough MPs will change their mind when Parliament sits again in March …

2010 elections – a House with more seats?

Currently, there are 50 seats in the Solomons parliament. There were only 38 seats when it was established in 1978 and it has only increased twice since (to 47 seats before the 1993 election and then to 50 seats before the 1997 election).

Section 54 of the Constitution (cited in full at the end of this post) states that there shall be 30-50 seats in Parliament and that the exactly number shall be based on the recommendation of the Constituency Boundaries Commission. Since Parliament has already reached the maximum number of seats, a constitutional amendment is now required if it is to expand further.

The Government proposed just such an amendment last year and the Constituency Boundaries Commisssion (CBC) has just handed down a report recommending that an additional 17 seats be established (see Solomon Times, 2/2/10). The provincial break-down is: four more for Malaita, three more for Guadalcanal and Western and one more for each of the other Provinces and also for Honiara.

This seems like a large increase but really this is just because Parliament has only expanded twice in 22 years and the last time was 13 years ago. Based on some quick-and-dirty calculations, I reckon that the recommended increase is probably less than the population growth that occurred during the same period. (I also reckon that this is appropriate, however, since there doesn’t seem to be any reason why the number of voters per electorate should remain fixed over time. Also, I can’t see any requirement to that effect in the Constitution.)

The CBC’s recommendation raises several issues.

First, the proposed constitutional amendment aims increase to increase the range of seats in Parliament from 30-50 (as it currently stands) to 50-70 seats (in future). However, if the CBC recommendation is adopted, then it is highly likely that Parliament will have to amend the constitution again the next time there is a recommendation to increase the number of seats. Given that population growth is likely to remain strong for some time to come, perhaps it would be wise to increase the upper cap to 80 or even 90 seats (or, more radically, why not do away with it entirely and leave it in the hands of the CBC, subject to parliamentary approval?).

Second, if the necessary changes are approved by Parliament in March, the task of implementation is likely to place additional pressure on the SI electoral commission, given there will be at most 4-5 months between parliamentary approval of the additional seats and the date of any election.

Huge bonus for sitting MPs

Finally, the CBC’s recommendation is likely to be a huge bonus for sitting MPs, especially since section 54 only allows them to accept or reject the recommendation (that is, Parliament does not have the power to approve a smaller increase). When Parliament expanded from 38 to 47 members before the 1993 election, 31 out of 38 incumbent members (82%) were re-elected. By contrast, in the six other elections since independence, on average only 44% of incumbents were re-elected and no other election has returned more than 58% of incumbents.

Sam Alasia suggests that the success of incumbents in 1993 may have been due in part to the introduction in 1992 of a discretionary fund for MPs to distribute to their electorates (Alasia 1997, p.12) – the now-infamous Rural Constituency Development Fund (RCDF). Clearly, however, the increase in the number of seats also played a role because the competition in that election was less fierce – in 1993, there were only 6.0 candidates per electorate, the lowest level of any post-indendepence election. By contrast, in five other elections, the average was 6.7 candidates per electorate. (This excludes the exceptional case of the 2006 election, which averaged 9.1 candidates per electorate.)

Perhaps it is these considerations, rather than the pressure imposed on the Electoral Commission, will weigh uppermost on the minds of parliamentarians when they deliberate on this matter in March?

Appendix:

As mentioned above, the number of seats in Parliament is governed by Section 54 of the Constitution. Here are the relevant provisions:

Constituencies

54.-(1) For the purpose of the election of members of Parliament, Solomon Islands shall be divided into such number of constituencies, being not less than thirty and not more than fifty, and each constituency shall have such boundaries, as may be prescribed by Parliament by resolution on a recommendation of the Constituency Boundaries Commission in accordance with subsection (4) of this section.

(2) The Constituency Boundaries Commission shall make recommendations to Parliament with respect to the number and boundaries of constituencies as soon as practicable after the commencement of this Constitution; and thereafter the Commission may review the number and boundaries of the constituencies whenever they consider this to be desirable and shall do so not later than ten years after they last reviewed them, and may make recommendations to Parliament for alterations in the number and boundaries of the constituencies.

(3) In making recommendations under the preceding subsection, the Constituency Boundaries Commission shall have regard to the principle that the number of inhabitants of each constituency shall be as nearly equal as is reasonably practicable:

Provided that the Commission may depart from the foregoing principle to such extent as they consider expedient in order to take account of the distribution of the population, the means of communication, and ethnic affiliations.

(4) Parliament may, by resolution, approve or reject the recommendations of the Constituency Boundaries Commission but may not vary them; and, if so approved, the recommendations shall have effect as from the next dissolution of Parliament.